There is some overlap, but my intention is to expand on what AE7Q offers for predictions. This site doesn't display the full history of the call or FRN like AE7Q does, so please go there for that data. This site just does predictions of pending applications. The prediction handles a few more cases than AE7Q, and produces chance of assignment, which is not something that AE7Q offers.
The site simulates the randomized process of FCC assignments, running tens of thousands of times, and adding up the result. That is used to produce chances of assignment. It takes into account all outstanding applications at the time of running the simulation.
Each application is not processed independently. The outcome of an application depends on the results of previous applications. The simulation handles that, producing the predicted chances for all valid applications and vanity requests.
The site gets data from two sources: 1) the weekly and daily FCC data exports published on their website and ftp site; 2) reading (scraping) the FCC ULS website and gathering information about new and outstanding applications.
The FCC data export is what most sites use to populate their data. Most sites don't attempt to gather additional data by reading the ULS website itself. Getting data directly from ULS allows us to get the following bits that we would otherwise not be able to access in a timely manner:
However, scraping ULS data does have some limitations. It is possible that the site may miss some data due to performance issues with ULS responsivity and structure of ULS state changes. Scraping is limited to run outside of business hours in order to avoid bogging down. One should not rely on brand new data as canonical. See the below questions on data completeness and data latency.
The simulation runs use random ordering and produce small shifts in the numerical output. If you refresh the page after a little while, you'll also see the numbers shift from a new simulation of the chances. Current output is accurate to approximately ±0.4%.
Higher precision output is possible, but computation time would be prohibitive, as accuracy scales with the square of the number of iterations.
The chances of prior assignments affect later assignments. So if an applicant had requested a callsign with two other competitors and each had no prior requests, the chances of assignment would be 33.3%. However, if the applicant had prior requests, either in the form of a previous application, or higher priority callsigns on the relevant application, the chances of assignment would be reduced, perhaps to a very low chance of 5% or less. How much the chances of assignment would be reduced could be figured by probability computations, but the simulation that is being run derives an approximation of the value using probabilistic methods.
Try clicking on the applicant callsign with reduced chances to see what other applications or vanity requests they have that are also pending.
There may initially be missing data when scraping the FCC ULS website for application data. This should be resolved when the FCC data export catches up. See the questions about data completeness and data latency.
The FCC has a rule about duplicate applications: it will not honor multiple paid applications from the same applicant with the same receipt date. FCC procedure is described by the rule in §97.19(d)(1):
In the event that the Commission receives more than one application requesting a vanity call sign from an applicant on the same receipt day, the Commission will process only the first such application entered into the Universal Licensing System. Subsequent vanity call sign applications from that applicant with the same receipt date will not be accepted.
The predictions for Duplicate applications follow this rule. However, the FCC does not always apply it consistently. There are a minority of cases where the prior application is dismissed, and the latter application is granted.
If you have applications pending that have a predicted Duplicate outcome, consider withdrawing unneeded applications in order to have a more predictable result.
|Receipt date||Earlier application
|2022-02-28||0009930747||0009931092||Callsign requested not available|
|2022-02-28||0009930088||0009931224||Callsign not active|
|2021-10-14||0009753667||0009753669||Callsign not active|
Firstly, it's interesting to see if the chances are in your favor. By looking at many applications, you can see patterns and plan a more successful application. Second, if you have multiple applications pending, you can consider whether to withdraw some applications to improve your chances or to be certain of receiving a preferred callsign. Also you can add up the chances of assignment for each of your applications and if they reach 100%, you can choose to stop making further applications. You can also use it to look for callsigns that have a less than 100% chance of being assigned, and consider putting in an application for that callsign. Lastly, if your application shows no chance of success, you can choose to amend your application to re-file without paying a second application fee.
In short, this tool can provide you more information to help you make an informed decision about your applications.
Periodically this site will scrape the FCC ULS data for amateur applications. To do this, the site makes requests for many ULS records seeking valid vanity applications that have been submitted to the FCC.
This process can be very slow during business hours due to the load on the ULS website and it's design and bugs. Because of that, the site will only attempt to scrape the data outside of business hours. Please check back after business hours.
Although care is taken to try to make scraped data complete, it is possible that records are missed. As such, consider data that has not yet made it into the FCC data export as preliminary. After several days, we should have the canonical data and predictions. See the data export schedule in the below answer.
This site uses the FCC data published on their website and ftp site. Unfortunately, the FCC doesn't publish data very quickly, and so there are times when this site is not able to calculate predictions for applications. This has to do with how the FCC batch jobs are scheduled. Additionally, due to federal holidays and the occasional operational SNAFU, the data may be even more out of date. This site checks for updates every two hours, so if the FCC does publish the data, it should be a couple hours at most before the site reflects it.
The following table describes FCC exported data latency for typical weeks without federal holidays or FCC processing errors.
calendar day (ET)
|Sunday*||prior Friday||prior Saturday||1 day||prior Friday||2 days|
|Sunday 5pm||prior Friday||prior Saturday||1 day||prior Saturday||1 day|
|Monday||prior Friday||prior Saturday||2 days||prior Saturday||2 days|
|Tuesday||prior Friday||prior Saturday||3 days||Monday||1 day|
|Wednesday||Monday||Tuesday||2 days||Tuesday||1 day|
|Thursday||Tuesday||Tuesday||2 days||Wednesday||1 day|
|Friday||Wednesday||Tuesday||2 days||Thursday||1 day|
|Saturday 5am||Thursday||Friday||2 days||Friday||1 day|
|Saturday 9am*||Friday||Saturday||0 days||Friday||1 day|
* Not valid for predictions, since application grants are newer than license grants. This data will not be used for prediction runs. The previous run with valid data will continue to be shown.
While this site does try to scrape FCC ULS to try to get the latest available data, it relies on the FCC data exports for the bulk of the data. Some of the data such as application grants, only comes from the FCC data export. During times that application grant records are newer than license grants, the data is in an inconsistent state and we are unable to perform valid prediction runs.
Please remember to check the dates listed on page footers.
The FCC posts payments to applications after the close of the business day, weekdays between 5pm and 8pm Eastern time. Subsequent runs of the ULS scraping should pick up those payments.
To manually verify these in ULS, see the application's "Admin" tab and look for "Payment Confirmed" under "History".
Please note that payments in the FCC system on a weekend or holiday don't get reflected in the application history of ULS immediately, but usually show up by the end of the next business day.
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